IGD has forecasted that the global supermarket and hypermarket channel will remain the dominant force in grocery retail with sales reaching USD 3.5 trillion by 2030.
However, a three percent CAGR compared to four percent for the total grocery market will see the channel’s share fall from 36 percent in 2025 to 34.3 percent in 2030, with the faster-growing discount and online channels gaining ground.
Despite losing share, supermarkets and hypermarkets will remain the largest modern grocery channel, generating an additional USD 481 billion in sales by 2030, underlining their continuing scale and importance.
But according to IGD, competing channels are building momentum as digitalisation raises the standard of convenience, choice, and personalisation.
Discount and online capturing growth
IGD’s analysis suggested that discount retailers are gaining share by sharpening price perception, improving quality, and tailoring ranges to changing shopper needs, making them increasingly competitive across core grocery missions.
At the same time, online grocery is eroding one of the large store’s core advantages: choice. Digital channels can now match the breadth of range of even the largest stores, while benefiting from rising demand for convenience, personalisation, and digitalisation.
Together, these channels are taking a growing share of both stock-up and top-up missions, shifting spend away from large format stores.
“Shoppers are increasingly redirecting spend to channels better aligned to their evolving expectations,” said Lucy Beaumont, Senior Insight Analyst at IGD.
“Large format retailers must fundamentally rethink how stores create value or risk becoming a large channel with a smaller role in grocery spending.”
The large store’s role is being redefined
As share declines, IGD expects supermarkets and hypermarkets to increasingly rethink how stores create value.
IGD claims that the channel’s traditional strengths - scale, range and one-stop shopping - are no longer sufficient on their own as competing channels replicate or outperform these advantages.
In response, retailers are shifting towards a more multi-functional store model, using space, infrastructure and services to unlock new sources of growth.
This includes monetising store assets, embedding retail media, forming partnerships and using stores as fulfilment hubs to support online and rapid delivery.
At the same time, stores are being redesigned around missions and occasions to drive engagement, increase basket spend, and restore relevance in a more competitive market.
IGD’s ‘Global supermarket and hypermarket trends 2026’ report provides a comprehensive view of how the channel is evolving.
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