UK | In IGD’s latest five-year forecasts to 2029, discount will be the fastest growing physical grocery channel with a sales CAGR of 5.2 percent.
For both retailers and suppliers, it is vitally important to understand the key drivers of growth in the discount channel over the short to medium term. This will help both to plan and prepare their strategies for this period.
The significance of the discount channel in the UK market, which ranks third globally in terms of value, is on the rise. Forecasts indicate that discount sales will increase by over 19 percent between 2024 and 2029, ultimately capturing a market share of 16.6 percent.
Europe remains the heartland for the channel, with the top 14 countries by discount market share in the region. Despite this, there is encouraging growth across the globe, with new regional players emerging, discounters expanding into new markets, and retailers focusing on their discount banners.
“The continued growth of discounters in grocery retail cannot be ignored, with suppliers needing to identify opportunities to work with them and competitors wanting to know how to fight back,” said Dan Butler, Senior Insights Analyst.
“Our report shows the key trends that are driving discounters forward, which takes inspiration from our global research despite Europe’s dominance in the channel. We identify which markets have the best prospects for discount growth and who the main players will be through our data and five-year forecasts.”
IGD’s Global discount trends report that will be most important to discounters in 2025:
- Value leadership: Value remains at the core of discounters’ operating model, and top of mind for shoppers. Discounters will continue to base their strategies on EDLP, experiment with loyalty programs, and refine their store formats to maintain their positions as value leaders.
- Renewed focus on networks: Discounters have renewed their ambitious plans for store network expansion. City centres are a target for expansion, and acquisitions will be used in saturated markets. To remain relevant to shoppers’ changing needs and to add sustainable and energy-efficient features, existing networks will be targeted for upgrades.
- Rethinking non-grocery: Discounters must adapt their non-food strategy to cater to changing shopper needs. Dedicated outlet stores will become more prominent, and variety discounters will continue to enjoy fast sales growth, driven by strong store expansion in Europe. E-commerce will play a role in the non-food space.
- Affordable health: Discounters will aim to limit the impact of price on shoppers’ decision-making process for healthier options. Physical health will be supported through event activation, non-grocery ranges, and shopper education.
- Strengthening sustainability: Discounters will intensify their sustainability efforts, with 2025 being a critical year, given the targets to be achieved by that time. Shoppers will look to discounters to help them make affordable, sustainable choices, which will help discounters build trust and loyalty.
Going forward, Europe will remain the global hotspot for the discount channel, with its share of sales advancing to over 23 percent by 2029. Central and Eastern European markets, as well as Portugal, offer strong prospects for the discount channel, with high penetration and sales growth rates projected through 2029.
All regions, except Asia, are expected to see the discounts’ market share continue to grow. Shoppers switching into the channel and the continued expansion of networks will drive growth. However, only one market outside of Europe, Canada, will have a discount market share of over 15 percent in 2029.
In terms of retailers, Aldi and Lidl are expected to continue dominating the channel. The discounters’ combined total sales are set to pass USD 320 bn by 2029. Together, Aldi and Lidl will account for 34 percent of the channel’s global sales in 2029.
Lidl, Aldi and 18 other operators will account for 83 percent of the channel’s additional sales between 2024 and 2029. They should be top of mind in building any strategic plans for the channel.
By understanding the key drivers of growth and adapting strategies accordingly, businesses can not only thrive but also lead the charge in transforming the grocery retail landscape.
The future of the discount channel is bright and full of potential. As the channel continues to evolve, those who are proactive and strategic in their approach will reap the rewards.
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