Falling birth rates and intense competition have prompted several dairy producers in China to concentrate more on adult nutrition than infant nutrition.
This strategic realignment to adult nutrition was a response to the shrinking market for infant products, as fewer births translate to a smaller customer base for infant formula and related products.
GlobalData findings showed that volume sales of the baby milk category in China were set to decline at a negative compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of one to three percent during 2023–29. Producers aimed to establish a stronger foothold in a rapidly evolving market landscape by redirecting their resources and expertise.
“The Chinese market for infant milk is seeing a notable shift, with international brands that once led the industry now facing fierce competition from domestic producers,” said Mani Bhushan Shukla, Consumer Analyst at GlobalData.
“Following the 2008 Chinese melamine scandal, these domestic brands have significantly improved their operations by adopting strict quality measures and upgrading their manufacturing facilities. This has led to a growing acceptance among Chinese consumers of domestic baby milk products, which are both nutritious and more affordable.”
Shukla added that with the fierce competition in China’s infant dairy industry, brands strive to differentiate themselves by employing a multi-tier classification system that distinguishes their products based on quality, ranging from basic to premium, super-premium, and hyper-premium.
“While nearly every city in China hosts a domestic dairy producer, government actions to improve safety standards have spurred consolidation in the sector.”
Consumers are now more health-conscious and look for ways to enhance their fitness, spurring the demand for adult nutrition products. The industry’s focus on innovation and product development has also led to introducing new products catering to specific dietary needs.
A survey corroborated this trend. Fifty percent of Chinese respondents stated that they have been buying sports and active nutrition products, including protein bars and energy gels, more often in the last three months. Similarly, 49 percent of respondents indicated they have also been buying dietary supplements more frequently.
“In 2023, China recorded its lowest birth rate ever at 6.4 births per 1,000 people, coupled with a rapidly aging demographic. This demographic transition is anticipated to have profound economic and business implications,” said Elyn Gao, Business Development Director, China, GlobalData.
“Consequently, dairy manufacturers are making concerted efforts to diversify into adult and medical nutrition to counterbalance this strategically. The ongoing trend has prompted international dairy producers, including New Zealand’s A2 Milk, Fonterra, Danone, Abbott Laboratories, and Nestlé, to roll out new milk products tailored for China's adult and aging demographic. Concurrently, domestic companies like Feihe and Yili are entering the adult nutrition space.”
Gao added that the Healthy China 2030 initiative expanded the Chinese adult nutrition market. The COVID-19 pandemic has heightened consumer focus on health, driving demand for products that enhance physical well-being and emotional balance.
Awareness of gut health and interest in ingredients like prebiotic fibre and botanicals are rising. The demand for prebiotic fibre is expected to rise due to its benefits in digestion and weight management.
Manufacturers have responded with products featuring plant-based, low-sugar, and gluten-free claims, catering to discerning consumers scrutinising product labels.
“The focus on adult nutrition has intensified in recent years, driven by manufacturers’ growing awareness of the aging population’s needs and the increasing demand for products that enhance immune health and support bones, joints, and muscles,” added Shukla.
“Consequently, several international dairy producers have withdrawn from this competitive market. A notable instance is Abbott Laboratories, which stopped infant formula production in China at the end of 2022 to redirect its focus toward adult nutrition.”
