New Zealand’s domestic avocado market could grow by more than $30 million a year if local consumption moved closer to Australian levels, with new research pointing to changing meal occasions, social media and more at-home consumption as potential drivers of category growth.
New Zealanders currently consume around 3kg of avocado per person each year, compared with 4.7kg in Australia and 12kg in Mexico.
NZ Avocado estimated that lifting local consumption to around Australian levels could increase the domestic wholesale market from around $60 million to more than $90 million annually at current values.
The opportunity comes as New Zealand heads towards a potentially record avocado season, with almost eight million trays expected to enter domestic and export markets in 2026-27.
Nearly three million trays are earmarked for New Zealand consumers, with a wholesale value of around $60 million, while almost five million trays worth around $100 million are expected to be exported.
A new National Guacamole Day Study of more than 1,000 New Zealand adults found consumers were also broadening the occasions on which they ate avocado.
Lunch was now a more common avocado occasion than breakfast, at 23 percent compared with 18 percent, while almost a quarter, 24 percent, of consumers ate avocado across several different meals or occasions.
NZ Avocado chief executive Brad Siebert said increasing the number of consumption occasions represented an important opportunity for the category.
“Avocado has traditionally been strongly associated with breakfast, brunch and toast, but consumers are increasingly using it across a much wider range of meals.
“For retailers, the opportunity is to broaden the way consumers think about avocado and encourage them to see it as an everyday ingredient rather than something associated with one particular meal or recipe,” said Siebert.
Toast remained the country’s most common avocado pairing, used by 68 percent of avocado consumers, followed by salad at 48 percent, eggs at 42 percent, Mexican food at 31 percent and sushi at 25 percent.
The research also pointed to growing at-home consumption.
Among respondents who ate avocado toast, 61 percent mostly made it at home and just five percent mostly bought it from cafés, while 27 percent said they were buying café avocado toast less often than a year ago.
The shift was even more pronounced among households earning more than $200,000, with 44 percent saying they were purchasing café avocado toast less often.
Siebert said the move towards preparing avocado-based meals at home created an opportunity for grocery retailers to capture spending that may previously have occurred through hospitality.
“People haven't necessarily stopped eating avocado toast. What appears to have changed is where they are eating it, with the majority now preparing it themselves at home.
“That shift is important because it places more of the consumption occasion inside the grocery channel,” said Siebert.
The study also found social media and New Zealand’s increasingly diverse food culture were exposing consumers to new ways of using avocado.
Siebert said the move towards preparing avocado-based meals at home created an opportunity for grocery retailers to capture spending that may previously have occurred through hospitality.
“People haven't necessarily stopped eating avocado toast. What appears to have changed is where they are eating it, with the majority now preparing it themselves at home.
“That shift is important because it places more of the consumption occasion inside the grocery channel,” said Siebert.
The study also found social media and New Zealand’s increasingly diverse food culture were exposing consumers to new ways of using avocado.
Consumers were incorporating Indian, Middle Eastern and Pacific flavours alongside Asian-style condiments, pickled vegetables and other ingredients not traditionally associated with avocado or guacamole.
Siebert said these trends could help expand avocado beyond its traditional category associations.
“Social media is exposing consumers to new recipes and flavour combinations at a much faster rate, and that creates opportunities for retailers to merchandise avocado alongside a wider range of complementary products,” said Siebert.
The research was commissioned ahead of National Guacamole Day on 16 September, which NZ Avocado is using to encourage consumers to experiment with locally grown fruit and increase the number of occasions on which they eat it.
Almost half, 45 percent, of those preparing guacamole had their own recipe which they used regularly, while 37 percent adapted recipes according to ingredients they already had at home and 32 percent added chilli or other spicy ingredients.
Siebert said even modest growth in per-capita consumption could materially increase the value of the domestic category.
“We don't need New Zealanders to reach Mexican consumption levels for this to make a significant difference.
“Even gradually moving closer to Australia would represent meaningful additional demand for New Zealand-grown avocados and a larger category opportunity for retailers,” said Siebert.
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