The Foodstuffs grocery co-ops said customers have started to see better value in seasonal fresh produce as summer approaches, but global costs remain high for red meat, dairy and chocolate.
Stats NZ has reported an annual food price inflation (FPI) rate of 4.7 percent for October 2025, while Foodstuffs recorded an average year-on-year retail price increase of 3.6 percent for their comparable FPI basket of products.
Foodstuffs’ supplier costs for goods in its FPI basket rose 4.7 percent in October, year on year.
Foodstuffs NZ Managing Director Chris Quin said there was good news in the produce aisle, with prices improving as supply builds.
“As we head into summer, there’s more sunshine and more variety on shelf. Covered crops like tomatoes, cucumbers and capsicums are providing great value right now. Strawberries are at their peak, asparagus is in season, and main-season blueberries are arriving.”
Among the biggest year-on-year price drops in October were olive oil (down 19.6 percent), capsicums (-23.7 percent), apples (-15.2 percent) and kumara (-14.4 percent).
On the flip side, cabbage remains elevated (up 64.9 percent), with kiwifruit (+49.8 percent), lamb leg roasts (+41.5 percent), drinking chocolate (+30.8 percent) and cheese (+29.9 percent) also among the steepest year-on-year price increases.
“Kiwifruit prices have been pushed higher by tighter domestic availability this year, along with a shorter local season. Fresh imported supply is due to arrive in December, just in time for the Christmas pavlova.”
Steak, lamb leg roasts, cheese and drinking chocolate were among the top contributors to Foodstuffs’ October rate, reflecting sustained global demand and limited supply, with dairy and chocolate also influenced by ongoing volatility in commodity markets.
Quin added that global dairy supply was beginning to improve, while on the butchery front, beef prices remained firm with a slower-than-expected start to the new season limiting supply.
“Global dairy production is picking up in some regions, but demand remains strong – so costs haven’t eased meaningfully yet. Meat prices continue to be elevated. The good news is that they have stopped going up for the moment, though beef and lamb prices are unlikely to ease anytime soon.
He said that customers can still find value by exploring different cuts like brisket or by choosing kebabs, split birds, and other value-added BBQ options.
The latest Foodstuffs quarterly survey of more than 2,000 shoppers confirmed most are continuing to adapt how they shop and eat.
Over 90 percent of customers said they’ve noticed the rising cost of meat, and many are responding by buying it less often.
“We’re also hearing that around a third of customers are likely to change their Christmas meal plans this year, either by choosing smaller cuts, fewer meat options, or simpler menus overall.”
The survey also found more customers are shopping around between grocery retailers (up to 41 percent, from 37 percent in July), cutting back on non-essentials and buying fewer items across all categories.
Looking ahead, Quin mentioned there’s a strong growing outlook for summer, with no major shortages expected.
“Produce supply is improving week by week, and crop conditions look solid. Our focus remains on buying well, supporting local growers, and getting fresh, great-value food onto shelves for the season ahead.”
