UK | IWSR forecasts global beverage alcohol consumption volume to decline for a further six years before resuming growth in 2031.
The forecast is part of IWSR’s annual global data release, published today, which includes confirmed 2025 consumption data and IWSR’s first ten-year forecasts for all 160 national markets it monitors.
Following declines to 2031, global volume is forecast to recover almost all of its 2025 level by 2035, amounting to a negative one percent total volume decline over the decade.
The stabilisation in global volume from 2031 will be driven by two main factors: a substantial rebalancing of the global market and continued growth in the worldwide drinking-age population.
Forecast national market rebalancing
Over the next decade, the global beverage alcohol market will be shifting away from China, North America and Europe to India, South America and Africa. This is most clearly illustrated by looking at consumption by serving, which better accounts for the different serving sizes across categories.
The number of beverage alcohol servings consumed in China in 2035 is forecast to be 19 percent lower than in 2025. Other large falls in total beverage servings consumed over the same period are the United States (-18 percent), Japan (-15 percent), Germany (-14 percent), and the United Kingdom (-13 percent).
Meanwhile, servings consumed annually from 2025 to 2035 will surge in Mexico (+13 percent), Vietnam (+15 percent), Colombia (+26 percent) and India (+38 percent).
When measured by servings, India is forecast to surpass the United States in 2032 to become the second-largest market for beverage alcohol in the world after China.
Forecast drinking age population growth
Moderation, whether driven by lifestyle or economic factors, will remain a growing trend over the next decade. Global annual per capita litres of pure alcohol are forecast to drop by half a litre by 2035 (a drop approximately equivalent to two bottles of spirits or a case of wine per person per year).
While this is a significant decline in consumption, the rate of decline is slowing. Meanwhile, the population of legal drinking age consumers is forecast to grow by 9 percent over the same period. This growth in consumer numbers is sufficient to bring total global volume in 2035 to just -1 percent lower than 2025 volume.
Ongoing global shifts in category consumption are forecast to continue
At the category level, beer volume reflects the broader beverage alcohol trend by declining globally from 2025 to 2035 by -1 percent.
Global wine volume is forecast to drop by -14 percent, while global spirits consumption is forecast to lose -2 percent.
RTDs will continue their strong growth, however, with +17 percent volume forecast for the next decade.
Confirmed 2025 global data headlines
In addition to updating its global forecasts, IWSR has also released confirmed 2025 data for all 160 markets it tracks.
From 2024 to 2025, global total beverage alcohol volume declined by -2 percent.
Among major categories over the same period, global beer volume declined -2 percent, global wine volume was down -5 percent, and global spirits volume lost -3 percent. The volume of RTDs consumed globally grew +3 percent.
At the national level, 66 of the 165 markets tracked by IWSR in 2025 saw the number of beverage alcohol servings consumed grow from 2024 levels. 83 markets saw declines, and 12 markets remained flat (0 percent change).
Several of the world’s largest markets experienced meaningful declines. China saw a -7 percent drop in servings consumed during 2025. The US saw a -4 percent decline in servings, Germany experienced a -5 percent drop in servings, and the UK saw servings decline -2 percent.
The largest markets that experienced growth were India (+4 percent servings), Colombia (+4 percent servings), and South Africa (+1 percent servings).
“The forecast stabilisation in global beverage alcohol volumes is good news for the industry, but there are still plenty of challenges ahead,” said Marten Lodewijks, President and Managing Director of IWSR.
“2035 will be a vastly different market landscape than the one we see today, and producers will need to cater to changing consumer tastes in established markets as well as prepare for significant changes in where consumption is taking place. Companies that only rely on past successes to carry them through the next decade will face serious challenges.”
Other highlights
Several beverage alcohol subcategories enjoyed very strong global growth in 2025. These include:
- No alcohol beer – up +8 percent volume
- Indian whiskey – up +4 percent volume
- Stout – up +4 percent volume
- RTD cocktails – +14 percent volume
- Soju (outside Korea) – +9 percent volume
For the first time since IWSR records began in 1990, the total volume of spirits consumed worldwide exceeded the total volume of wine consumed. Both categories declined in volume in 2025, but spirits’ more moderate volume decline (-3 percent) was sufficient for it to surpass wine volume (-5 percent).
As predicted in last year’s forecast, no-alcohol beer was the second-largest subcategory of beer by volume in 2025. In this year’s forecast, no-alcohol beer is expected to double its share of the global beer market by volume from 2 percent in 2025 to 4 percent by 2033.
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