USA | IGD (Institute of Grocery Distribution) forecasted that the global convenience channel will grow to over USD one trillion in sales by 2030, with the world’s top 20 operators accounting for over USD 80bn.
However, IGD also predicted that the channel will lose share in the grocery market due to rising competition from discounters, supermarkets, and rapid delivery services.
IGD’s ‘Global convenience trends 2026’ report found that while convenience will continue to grow at a 3.5 percent CAGR to 2030, this will trail total grocery growth of 4 percent CAGR. As a result, IGD expects the channel’s share of grocery sales to fall from 10.7 percent in 2025 to 10.4 percent in 2030.
“The headline growth masks a structural challenge: convenience risks becoming a bigger channel with a smaller role in grocery spending unless retailers and suppliers adapt," said Sneha Haria, Insight Manager at IGD.
"The channel’s historic advantages are being eroded, and without change, it will continue to lose share.”
Europe and Asia lead the pack
IGD’s analysis showed that convenience’s growth and market share will vary greatly by region.
North America, the largest convenience market globally, is expected to grow the slowest, with market share declining from 16.9 percent in 2025 to 15.1 percent in 2030 as discounters and rapid delivery intensify competition.
Europe is projected to deliver the strongest market share gains, rising from 11.3 percent to 11.9 percent, driven by aggressive estate expansion and franchising.
Asia will contribute the largest increase in absolute sales, but convenience penetration will remain below 8 percent as traditional retail and local food markets continue to compete strongly.
Why convenience is losing share
IGD’s research identified several forces driving the decline in share. Discounters have been expanding locally and attracting value‑conscious shoppers, while supermarkets have sharpened their small-format propositions, and fast-delivery platforms are reducing immediate‑need store visits.
Rising operating costs and regulatory constraints on pricing flexibility have also impacted performance, as is shoppers’ perception that convenience is an expensive channel, particularly during periods of high inflation.
Together, these factors have eroded convenience’s traditional advantages on proximity, speed and mission clarity.
Choice over proximity
IGD’s analysis highlighted that convenience operators gaining share are those redefining the role of the store rather than relying solely on proximity.
Successful retailers have increasingly focused on:
- Creating clear food‑for‑now and food‑for‑later missions.
- Strengthening value credentials through private label, loyalty, and simpler pricing.
- Using automation and technology to protect margins and improve efficiency.
- Adding services, food, and experiences that competitors struggle to replicate locally.
Convenience can no longer rely on proximity to justify its place in grocery. The operators gaining share are deliberately reshaping their offer around clear food missions, visible value, and everyday usefulness.
IGD’s ‘Global convenience trends 2026’ report further provides in‑depth analysis of global and regional convenience sales and market share to 2030, trends in evolving convenience stores globally, and strategic implications for retailers and suppliers.
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