In the 1990s, data became an obsession.
Brands rushed to build databases. Loyalty programmes multiplied. Every purchase, every shopper, every basket became something to capture and analyse. The expectation was simple: understand behaviour and growth would follow.
Three decades on, it is worth questioning the return on that thinking in FMCG. If you are selling a two-dollar can, how much does historical purchase data really change tomorrow’s outcome? What does it influence when most decisions are made quickly, at the shelf, and with limited attention?
Does knowing that a shopper bought your product twice last month materially strengthen a ranging discussion? Or does it largely confirm what categories already show, that most buyers are light buyers who switch easily and respond primarily to recognition and availability?
Retail loyalty programmes created clear value for retailers. They consolidated spend, reshaped bargaining power and created new revenue streams. For manufacturers, the benefit has always been more indirect. Much of the data sits one step removed, useful for context but rarely decisive on its own.
This creates a practical budget question. How much should be invested in capturing buyer data when price points are low and margins are tight? And how much should be directed towards the fundamentals that still drive choice?
At the same time, the opposite position carries real risk. Brands with no data are equally exposed. If you cannot demonstrate demand, explain who is buying or support your category performance, discussions with buyers become harder quickly. Being left off the shelf is often less about product quality and more about not being able to justify inclusion confidently.
What often gets overlooked in the data conversation is memory. Repetition anchors brands in the buyer’s mind. Familiarity is rarely created through insight alone. It is built through consistent presence over time.
FMCG growth has long been driven by penetration rather than narrow loyalty. Most brands grow by being chosen by more buyers, more often, even if purchases are irregular. In that environment, frequency does more work than precision.
The challenge is balance. Enough data to inform decisions and support conversations. Enough visibility to ensure the brand is familiar when a buyer is ready to act. Lean too far in either direction and growth stalls.
