New Zealand consumers can expect some relief at the checkout, as the price of olive oil begins to fall following a sharp two-year climb driven by severe droughts in the Mediterranean.
William Aitken & Co (WAC), the New Zealand importer of Lupi Olive Oil, a household staple and one of the country’s most recognised olive oil brands, said the latest harvest figures out of the Mediterranean region signal a turning point for the global olive oil market.
“After months of extremely tight supply and historically high prices, the global olive oil market is starting to stabilise,” said Pedro Benavente Olmos, Asia Pacific BU Area Manager at Deoleo, the global producer of Lupi Olive Oil.
“While prices began easing in Europe earlier this year, countries like New Zealand are only now beginning to benefit as the new, lower-cost stock arrives.”
Over the past two years, droughts across key growing regions, especially in Spain, have devastated yields. Spain’s production dropped from 1.49 million tonnes in 2021/22 to just 663,000 tonnes in 2022/23, the lowest output in decades.
Although a modest recovery followed in 2023/24 (854,000 tonnes), inventories were severely depleted, pushing prices to record highs.
According to WAC, the latest forecast for the 2024/25 Spanish harvest sits at 1.4 million tonnes, a 60 percent year-on-year increase, which is already leading to wholesale price corrections across global markets.
“New Zealand didn’t feel the impact straight away. Our market was still selling through stock purchased before the worst of the supply shocks. But once those shipments cleared, we saw the full force of the price rise hit locally. Thankfully, that cycle is now reversing. With new-season olive oil arriving at a lower cost, Kiwis can expect retail prices to start easing from May onwards," said Rachel Murrell, Managing Director at William Aitken & Co.
“We know it’s been a tough time for households and retailers alike. But we’re now in a position to say with confidence that prices are easing, and that’s good news for Kiwi consumers.”
While prices may not return immediately to pre-2022 levels, the worst appears to be over.
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