The pace of supplier cost increases to Foodstuffs supermarkets was unchanged last month.
The Infometrics-Foodstuffs New Zealand Grocery Supplier Cost Index (GSCI) showed an average 2.3 percent increase in what suppliers charged in September 2025, compared to a year earlier.
“September recorded the same result as in August, following a period of incremental increases,” said Infometrics Chief Executive and Principal Economist Brad Olsen.
“Slightly lower international dairy prices in recent months have eased pressure on dairy costs, which were previously a key driver of higher overall grocery costs. Protein costs remain higher, with meat and seafood supplier costs continuing to rise as global demand remains elevated relative to supply.”
The Infometrics-Foodstuffs New Zealand Grocery Supplier Cost Index (GSCI), commissioned by Foodstuffs New Zealand, measured the change in the list cost of grocery goods charged by suppliers to the Foodstuffs North Island and Foodstuffs South Island co-operatives.
The Index utilises detailed Foodstuffs NZ data across over 60,000 products the Foodstuffs co-ops buy to stock in their over 500 stores, making it the largest dataset of its type in New Zealand and providing a real-time view of supplier cost changes.
Every month, the Index tracks what it costs supermarkets to buy the goods to put on the shelf. Previous analysis shows that supplier costs are the major component of supermarket prices, representing two-thirds of the on-shelf price.
Supplier costs rose across all departments in September, year on year.
Previous increases in dairy costs continue to push bakery costs higher, up 3.9 percent pa. Higher fish costs, especially for salmon, saw seafood supplier costs advance 2.4 percent pa, the fastest increase since mid-2024. Butchery cost increases were more restrained, with more limited gains in beef costs.
Chilled foods costs also saw a slightly slower pace of gains, with a slight decline in butter costs. Olive oil costs have fallen slightly, but chocolate, coffee, and potato chip costs rose.
Month on month, just over 3,200 products increased in cost from August to September 2025.
“This monthly total was a touch higher than usual, although the 12-month moving average remains at around 2,800 per month. There were higher bakery, grocery, and frozen goods cost changes in September than those seen a year ago, but the number of butchery and chilled foods cost changes in September was lower.”
Olsen added that input prices into production and supply chains remain more muted, with limited changes to the cost of fuel or imported goods - although the recent dip in the New Zealand dollar could add a little more pressure.
Higher cost increases are being driven by global supply and demand dynamics, and continue to be more contained to a smaller selection of key, frequently bought products like dairy and meat, rather than higher costs across the board.
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